The Velocity of Doubt: A Perspective on the AI "Multiplier"
I’ve always found that the best way to understand our world and its technological development is through the lens of a strategy game like Civilization. In the game, as in history, the time it takes to "research" a new technology is logarithmic. In the Bronze Age, it might take a century just to refine a tool; in our modern era, a "year" can change everything.
The most striking proof of this is a single statistic: it took only 66 years to go from the Wright Brothers’ first flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903 to Neil Armstrong walking on the moon in 1969.
Looking at it that way, AI is just the next natural step on the tech tree. But even if the speed of AI is part of a normal historical curve, its nature feels fundamentally different from the tools that came before it.
From Tools to Agents
To see why, we can look at how the digital revolution unfolded. Computers were born out of the necessity of World War II (like the ENIAC and Colossus), but they didn't become affordable for the rest of us until the 1970s and 80s. By the 2000s, it was almost expected that every home would have one.
Cell phones followed a similar path, eventually blurring the line between "phone" and "computer" until we reached today’s reality: you practically need a smartphone just to function in society. The internet became the driving force behind all of this, allowing us to access, create, and modify information as the primary engine of our economy.
But through all those shifts, there was a constant: human input. Whether it was a PC or a smartphone, the machine was a tool. It was limited by our actions, and we still felt a sense of control over how we used it.
The AI Multiplier
This is where AI breaks the pattern. I think of AI as a multiplier. Unlike the PC or the smartphone, AI is self-generative and a massive proliferator.
In the past, we dealt with "spam"—junk emails, pop-up ads, and annoying robocalls. But AI has taken the crown. It is inundating every touchpoint of modern society, not just with volume, but with a level of realism that makes the old "Nigerian Prince" emails look like cave paintings.
The Innovation Illusion
When we look at this trajectory, we have to ask: Is AI actually a new innovation (clearly it is), or is it just a multiplier for the things we already detest?
In the past, we dealt with the clutter of the digital age—junk emails, pop-up ads, and persistent robocalls. But AI has officially taken the crown. It isn't just "improving" our lives; it is inundating every touchpoint of modern society with a level of realism that makes previous spam look primitive.
Instead of moving us forward, it feels like AI is simply weaponizing the "noise" we’ve been trying to filter out for decades. The "tactics" are becoming so indistinguishable from reality that our primary filter for the world has become a permanent state of doubt.
We are no longer just using a tool; we are navigating a landscape where we must constantly ask: Is this real? While the "Game of Civilization" continues its logarithmic sprint, we may find that this latest "advance" isn't a breakthrough at all—it's just the final, overwhelming proliferation of everything we wanted to escape.